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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:06 am 
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Oh my God I'm sorry guys. Numbers especially. I've been completely unable to get a signal the past several days. Work saw to that. :(

I, of course, targeted KoD. I got a result of scum.

This means Neo is confirmed the Naive cop. Unless scum used the reversal thing last night.... which, **** this game.

Aaarrrgh and I both got scum on KoD. Doesn't really mean anything at this stage because there's only one sane cop, and it could be neither of us. But good to know for later.

I'm too tired to analyze possible outcomes from this.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:30 am 
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Well, here is another situation where claim order impacted the game, and I'm glad we didn't follow my system. Neo is truly and totally cleared, and so is Skockwave, because again, the only way we could get these results is if the sane (or insane if miller time) cop hit scum. And no one targeted Shockwave. Good progress so far.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:32 am 
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Good stuff! Clearly, either Shock or I will get killed tonight.

From a non-dethy standpoint, hard to believe that Zinger is scum, as, if he had claimed a town result on anyone, it would have left more confusion on the table. So, not cleared, of course, but I'd expect KoD or Argh to be slightly more likely.

Long weekend - I'll try and get at least one more decent post in before the EOD

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:54 am 
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Yeah, if Zinger is scum, he was either not paying any attention at all, or this is the deepest wifom strategy I've ever seen. Which would of course make it a very effective wifom strategy... So I don't know what to make of that.

KoD is top of my list right now, of course, but Zinger is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:06 am 
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Well, I mean, I can confirm that I'm not really paying attention. XD

But I'm not scum either so. :P

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:53 am 
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At first I was wondering how I could be confirmed town, but after rereading I see how that logic flows.

Two confirmed town Day 1 is definitely to town advantage, as now we can confirm a Night 0 miller time use. I suggest both Neo and I keep our original target for the next Night, while everyone else pic new targets.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:23 am 
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D1 Results
KoD -> Zing: scum
Shock -> Arrgh: scum
Arrgh -> KoD: scum
Neo -> Zinger: town
Zinger -> KoD: scum

As far as I'm concerned, scum is Arrgh; however, I'm reserving the right to be paranoid in future days pending on what happens.

From my perspective, the only way Zinger and Arrgh could turn up a scum result on me is if both of them were some combination of the paranoid and insane cop. That would mean I have to be the sane cop, but that would make Zinger the Pokescum. That disproves my original premise. Therefore one of Zinger or Arrgh is the Pokescum. Without having thought too deeply about Shock yet, his result of scum on Arrgh further makes it more likely, to me, that Arrgh is the Pokescum since someone, except Neo, has to be the sane cop. Shock can't be the paranoid or insane cop as that makes the situation regarding Zinger, Arrgh, and I impossible; however, it makes sense if Shock is the sane cop.

All of that is assessed from my perspective. Other than considering the interactions deeply and showing them, I don't think I missed anything.

I'm pretty confident Arrgh is the scum. I suspect, given how this situation has played out, I will never die as it will only confirm Arrgh's guilt.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:17 am 
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Wait, why are you dismissing the idea of you being the sane cop? That seems just at likely as the line of thinking that you followed to me being scum. If you are sane and shock and I are a combination of paranoid and insane, everything fits.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:13 pm 
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Read my post again for why I did so.

From my perspective, I'm town. Two of you targeted me (you and Zinger) both with a scum result.

In order for both of you to be town one of two scenarios has to be true: you or him is the insane cop and the other is the paranoid cop.

I have a scum result on Zinger. In order for me to be the sane cop, that would mean Zinger has to be Pokescum which undermines my original premise (that both of you are town). Therefore, I can't be the sane cop.

Take Shock's investigation into account as well. He has a scum result on you. From my perspective still, if I consider all three of you to be town, there is still the issue of you and Zinger having a scum result on me. In order for you both to be town, repeat what was said above. That would mean Shock would have to be the sane cop, but then that destroys the premise that both of you are town still. Therefore Shock can't be the sane cop (keeping it similar to my previous conclusion).

Now my end conclusion on both of those is wrong to a point. Technically I could be the sane cop. So could Shock.

Either way, it comes down to a simple fact: Either Zinger or Arrgh is the Pokescum.


Unvote, Vote: Arrgh

Because of such a simple conclusion, I'm going to bypass no lynching. Given what we know, there is no way Zinger will die as it will auto confirm Arrgh as the scum. Obviously Arrgh won't kill himself. Same holds true if Zinger is the true Pokescum. Similarly, I won't be dying nor will Shock (though on the second night one of us will have to die).

I believe the simple way to end this game is to just lynch both Arrgh and Zinger. Preferably Arrgh first since I'm like 90% confident he is the Pokescum, but ultimately it doesn't matter as long as we lynch both of them today and tomorrow. Game will end in town victory no matter what then since it is impossible that Shock, myself, and definitely Neo to be the Pokescum.

To that end: @Shock and Neo

Please help me lynch Arrgh today. If you're unsure of what I'm proposing, please ask me to explain it in further detail and I will.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:18 pm 
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I won't lie though. This is the second time being me has benefited me at the start of D1 in these games.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:23 pm 
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One more thing.

Just because I figure Arrgh will bring it up, the Miller Time ability at this point doesn't matter. The situation is still the same, but the results would be reversed which means we consider different cop roles instead of the ones previously talked about. That is, we'd be talking about the insane cop in place of the sane cop, naive instead of paranoid, etc etc.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:25 pm 
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But your logic is ridiculously flawed. There is no reason to assume that both Zinger and I are town. So you are building your argument on a false assumption. I point out that you are making a false assumption and you respond by reiterating the exact same false assumption. What am I missing here?

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:33 pm 
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Wait, I found what I was missing after reading it again. You do address the possibility of Zinger being scum, I was focusing too much on the other things you said to notice.

Either way, your plan is terrible from any perspective other than your own. The rest of us have to consider the possibility of you being scum, in which case you are leading town into a worst case scenario.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:36 pm 
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And yet you're not showing any work to conclude that these "other possibilities" hold. Do you really want to play it out? Ok, let's play it out.


D1 Results
KoD -> Zing: scum
Shock -> Arrgh: scum
Arrgh -> KoD: scum
Neo -> Zinger: town
Zinger -> KoD: scum

These are the results that everyone gave. They are set in stone.

You already have my perspective. Let's look at other perspectives.

Let's work off of Neo being town for sure:
From Neo's perspective, what do these results indicate? Well there are four scum results. Two of them have to be the paranoid cop and the insane cop. One has to be the sane cop. The other is a lying Pokescum. Let's look at each person. Kod says Zinger is scum. Kod is either the sane cop, paranoid cop, insane cop, or Pokescum. Let's assume Kod is the Pokescum. Zinger and Arrgh both targeted Kod and got a scum result. That means Zinger and Arrgh must be some combination of the sane cop and paranoid cop. Shock's, then, must be the insane cop. This scenario holds as being a possibility from Neo's perspective.

Let's work off of Zinger's perspective:
Zinger knows I copped him as scum and that Neo copped him as town. For all intents and purposes, we're going to consider Neo as confirmed town naive cop from now on. So, with three other scum results floating around, as well as his own scum result on me, Zinger has to consider who is what. Let's assume Kod is scum from Zinger's perspective. That means Zinger and Arrgh, since both copped Kod, must be some combination of insane/paranoid townie and sane cop. Leaving Shock to be insane or paranoid which also checks out as a possible scenario.

Ok, I don't need to do any more work to see that I am definitely wrong here (with respect to other perspectives).

Looks like this will carry out to one of two possibilities then: Either myself, Arrgh, and Zinger or Shock, Arrgh, and Zinger.

Unvote


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:42 am 
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I am way over thinking this.

Was about to just try to prove miller time didn't happen, but could only prove it in a scenario where both Zinger and Aaarrrgh must be town... And that doesn't take into account possible KoD as town. I'll need to get my thought together

We still have 14 logical outcomes. Made a quick list using numbers for possible role rolls and listed under our initials what we could possibly be. The following assumes Neo is Naive in case of no miller time use or Paranoid in case of Miller time use.

Will explain the rest in the morning, including missing combinations and why, if asked.

Spoiler

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:59 am 
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Hold on. Narrowed further based on true cop possibilities.

Spoiler

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:37 am 
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My thoughts...

Clearly, I can't be scum, since Argh/Zinger/KoD/Shock would all have to be insane/paranoid

If Shock is scum, then I have to be naive.
Which means that KoD, Zinger and Argh could each only be insane or paranoid. So, Shock is not scum.

If KoD is scum...
I have to be naive or sane.
But, Zinger would have to be sane, meaning that I'm naive. And Argh and shock are each either insane or paranoid. Which can be true.

If Zinger is scum.
I have to be naive or insane.
Shock and Argh have to be insane/paranoid. Which means, that KoD has to be sane, and I'm naive.

If Argh is scum, I have to be naive or sane.
Shock has to be sane or paranoid.
KoD/Zinger are insane/paranoid.

So - best as I can tell, Shock and I are not scum.

Moving forward, and I thought I saw this somewhere, I agree - Shock and I should investigate the same people, to confirm if miller time was used, since it's pretty clear that one of us will be killed, the other can confirm/deny the miller time use.
The other 3 should check someone else to get more info.
Then, we should be able to win tomorrow, I'd expect.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:08 am 
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I can't see any possible way Shock can be scum. And Neo is obviously not scum.

One of KoD, Aaarrrgh, or I must be.

For me, I know that list is further narrowed to KoD or Aaarrrgh, but my perspective is made irrelevant to the two confirmed Town by the fact that I could be scum. Whichever of them is Town shares this perspective, and the other is being a laughing parrot. But confirming two town day 1 is a solid hit.

Obviously we need to Vote: No Lynch today so we can try and get more information tomorrow. I think regardless of which one of Shock or Neo the scum kills tonight, we should have this game in the bag. I think.

I feel like I'm missing something. This line of play doesn't make sense for the scum. Then again, it's possible that the scum just didn't have a choice. Both KoD and Aaarrrgh claimed early... but like, I didn't see any particular resistance to doing so.

Need to re-read the thread.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:13 am 
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NeoSilk wrote:
Does the miller ability prevent his NK? I didn't see that mentioned in this game....

FoS @Zinger!

You're right. I just went back and checked. There's no mention on whether or not the Miller time prevents the NK. It did in the Christmas dethy that numbers ran, so I assumed we were dealing with the same thing. Curious.

@NUMBERS: Can you confirm or deny if the Miller time ability works in exactly the same way it did in Christmas Rumble Dethy? (ie. Interrupts night kill)

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:19 am 
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I'll put mine there as well:

Vote: No Lynch

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