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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:07 am 
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HW is town, at least as far as I can tell. So I am probably naive, but I could also be sane, I guess.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:24 pm 
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I targeted Aaarrrgh, and was told he's scum. So, that's 3 scum results for me, either I keep picking town, and I'm insane, or, more likely, I'm paranoid.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:02 pm 
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@KoD - can you review why you think I'm scum again? I'm not really following your logic.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:19 pm 
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Assuming only 1 scum...and everyone has been honest...

KoD can't be scum.
(This is due to HW getting town on me, and scum on Rag)

Aaarrrgh can't be scum.
(Same reason as above)

HW can be scum.
KoD would be sane or naive.
Argh would be sane or naive
Rag would be insane or paranoid
I would be insane or paranoid
Dusky would be sane or naive.

That, of course, assumes that there is at least 1 duplicated role.

Rag can be scum.
KoD would be insane or naive
Argh would be sane or naive
HW would be sane
I would be paranoid
Dusky would be sane or naive

I could be scum.
KoD would be sane or naive
Argh would be naive
HW would be insane
Rag would be insane or paraoid
Dusky would be sane or naive

Dusky can't be scum
Again, due to HW getting town on me, and scum on Rag.

So - KoD - that's your logic, right? It's either me, Rag or HW, again, with the assumptions that there is only 1 scum, everyone is honest about targets and results, and one town role is duplicated.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:23 pm 
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Of course, now I wish I had waited for HW's claim before posting all of that...

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:07 pm 
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Targeted myself, got scum.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:46 pm 
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@Neo:

I'm sure you already worked it out. Yesterday, prior to Rag's death, it was based strictly on taking everyone's results at face value. HW got two different results on you and Rag which meant he was sane or insane. This implies that you or Rag has to be scum. As we know from Rag's lynch, Rag is town.

So there is no way around it. You are scum.


If we entertain any scenarios, they'll have to be scenarios where Rag is town. For instance HW could be sane or insane, but due to Rag flipping town and HW inspecting himself, we know that HW has to be insane.

Results thus far


Regarding Insane/Sane for those that have gotten all T or S results


^ Only thing gained here is that Argh has to be naive and can't be sane.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:13 pm 
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I investigated HW, and got scum.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:38 pm 
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As we know from Rag's lynch, Rag is town.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:07 pm 
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Rag: S, S (KoD, HW)(Lynched - Town)
Neo: S, S, S (KoD, Rag, Argh)
Dusky: T, blank, S (KoD, Neo, HW)
Argh: T, T, T (Neo, Dusky, HW)
HW: T, S, S (Neo, Rag, HW)
KoD: T, blank, blank (Rag, Dusky, Dusky)

-----------------------------------------------

If we do have two scum, my bet is that Dusky is the second one.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:16 pm 
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@KoD - you're ignoring that HW can also be scum - stop tunneling and look at the info...
How do you know that Rag is not scum? I don't see anything about that in number's posts.

Vote: HW

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:42 pm 
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I'm not ignoring that he can be scum (not also, unless you are maintaining that Rag was scum as well and that HW must be the second scum). I have been looking at the info. Unlike you, I think you are more likely to be scum than HW is.

That being said, you are right. JD never said Rag is town.

Also, Dusky's results directly conflict with HW.

So the situation would be this: If Neo is to be believed, Rag is scum and HW is scum (as I can't see why he'd focus HW after having focused Rag even if to save his own life). HW would be caught due to Dusky's result.

The alternative is that Dusky is scum and trying to put HW in the hole to protect her scum partner Neo (and Dusky's vote yesterday on the idea that it'd be a tie vote to equate to a no lynch even though no rule said that makes me dislike Dusky).


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:22 pm 
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So in the situation where HW is scum:

HW would have taken it upon himself, without much more information on who is what necessarily outside of Neo and Rag, to act aggressively and try to eliminate someone via a mislynch. So let's assume for a moment he lied about his results on Rag and Neo with the intent to cause a mislynch between two townies followed by a lynch on the other the next day. This situation would indicate that someone else is his scum partner assuming he's not on his own (ie. Rag and Neo are not scum with HW). So either Argh, myself, or Dusky are scum with HW (again, assuming he's not on his own).

The only problem I have with this situation is that it requires scum, in general, to play recklessly with little more information than the rest of the town has. A solo scum players risks the attention in pushing for a mislynch (Note: HW started the voting by going after Rag) while with a duo scum team is requires one player to put their neck out to get chopped potentially. In the above scenario with HW being scum, I assume he lies about his results (meaning we don't really know anything with his first two results and only have HW's result today and Dusky's result which came after HW's). If he is truthful about his results, as scum, then he outed his own team member (which is either Rag or Neo). HW started the vote chain yesterday when he first voted Rag, and given how Rag played this game (not wanting to die, voting for Neo, and trying to game solve) would indicate to me that Rag was town aligned.

That would mean a scum HW is teamed with a scum Neo. That and they are trying to do a gambit by sacrificing a teammate to gain favor with town possibly rather than working on a mislynch.

The above is within the realm of possibility. That is, a team of HW/Rag or HW/Neo. I don't find either of these likely though.



A team of Neo/Dusky is more plausible to me.
It is simpler in explaining what has occurred in so much as it doesn't assume that scum are trying to play recklessly with their team (ie. assuming Rag is scum and died to give HW town pants which obv didn't work, or assuming Neo and HW are scum and are trying to earn town pants by killing one another). A Neo/Dusky team fits the narrative that pushes for the team trying to score a mislynch. Especially since, more than likely, Rag is town.


That being said, assume HW is town and honest about his results (no reason to assume as town that he'd lie about his results).
We get the situation where one of Neo or Rag is insane and the other is paranoid.
We get a situation where a scum Dusky tries to push a mislynch on HW by claiming the opposite of HW.

Reasoning w/ results


I'm tapped out for now thinking all of it through in a variety of ways. Essentially it boils down to what has already been said.

You either believe HW is scum or don't. If you do believe he is scum, then you have to reason who his partner would be (Rag or Neo if you assume scum are playing risky or someone else pending on whether you believe he lied about his results). If you don't believe he is scum, then it falls to someone else.

I believe HW is town as I don't see the riskiness being a thing. I find it exceptionally believable that Neo and Dusky are on a team together.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:40 pm 
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Hmm, why are you so intent on a scum-team, instead of one person?

In any case, I have gained some additional information to share: Apparently I succeeded in licking off the strawberry jam sufficiently to get a read on my previous investigation, resulting in a scum result for Neo.
So I have one town and two scum, which I realize seems convenient after KoD's analysis (since it would speak for the theory that doesn't list ME as scum), but alas, it is what it is.

@KoD: Did you receive any late result on your first investigation on me?


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:36 pm 
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@KoD: analyzing the riskiness of scum plays doesn't apply if scum didn't know who they are until later. And that was the assumption most of us made based on the rules as written.

Also, Dusky getting scum results on both Neo and HW complicates things, I think.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:46 pm 
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Why should I be focused on just one scum as opposed to a team? After all, if there are two scum, then another mislynch puts town into a horrible spot.

In any case, no, unless JD edited a previous post in our conversation which I don't think he can. Either way, he hasn't. So I find it hard to believe that you received additional information, unless it was built in as a way to allow scum to gain information while being able to claim oops on a result like everyone else at the time. It would certainly allow some level of wiggle room to scum in some capacity.

In any case, Dusky's result, if you truly believe Dusky to be an insane town, means I have to be scum.

Therein lies a problem with assuming that though. It means HW has to be town which, as per his investigations, indicates Neo is scum.

At the least if you assume one scum, you run into issues with the results as they are given (Dusky's result would point to me, but HW points to Neo so obviously there isn't one scum despite Dusky asking me a question regarding believing in one scum).

This means there are two scum. This means you can choose to believe Dusky that I'm scum, and further assume HW is scum in order to fit the narrative Dusky is spinning. Or you go with the narrative I have spun which involves Dusky and Neo being scum, and the narrative has shifted slightly since Dusky is now trying to put me in the hole.

There is a problem that persists if Dusky is IT (insane town) since Dusky, with this assumption, clears HW of being scum. The alternative here would be Dusky is sane town which means both Neo and HW are scum, but that doesn't work since HW would then be sane (due to his result on himself) which means Rag would be scum and Neo would be town even though sane Dusky contradicts that...

Therefore Dusky can't be sane town.

At best Dusky is insane town, and I don't believe that.

At worst, Dusky is sane/insane scum (pending any lies Dusky has told to direct a mislynch), and I do believe this.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:48 pm 
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@Argh:

If you're talking about scum not knowing who the other scum partner is, then no. That's stupid to maintain.

If you're talking about scum not knowing their sanity and having to work it out based on results, then don't forget that, as Neo said, scum can lie.



In either case, the given results by various people cause complications. You can't deny that. So if you got a better suggestion on how to view all of this, why don't you work it out for me as I have worked it out.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:54 pm 
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Actually why don't you do that Argh? Based on the various results we have, what do you think?

Specifically speaking, your thoughts on:

Dusky has two scum results (one obtained later after it was supposed to be gained) on Neo and HW, and a town result on me.

HW has two scum results (one on Rag and himself) and a town result (on Neo).


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:01 am 
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JayDreven wrote:
Players are still being treated as town cops though, so scum will have to discover themselves to win as well.

Quote:
Each day players will be given results as town cop, scum included. Then they'll vote to eliminate who they think is scum.


That reads to me like scum starts the game thinking they are town.

I have to go to work, so I can't do a deep analysis right now, but I will look things over and get back to you within a day.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:40 am 
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Fair enough. I await a convincing argument.


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