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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:45 am 
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Aaarrrgh wrote:
JayDreven wrote:
Players are still being treated as town cops though, so scum will have to discover themselves to win as well.

Quote:
Each day players will be given results as town cop, scum included. Then they'll vote to eliminate who they think is scum.


That reads to me like scum starts the game thinking they are town.

I have to go to work, so I can't do a deep analysis right now, but I will look things over and get back to you within a day.


That's my thoughts as well, and would make sense. It would also, I believe, lead to more honesty, since scum would not know they were scum and lie (barring any night kills, which would then give them an idea).

That being said, I still am not sure if there would be one or two. It seems like the odds on having 2 scum, and neither having a kill, would be unlikely, but possible. But, if you add in a second unknown scum, it really adds alot of possibilities to the outcome.

For now, I'm pretty happy where my vote is.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:05 am 
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Aaarrrgh wrote:
JayDreven wrote:
Players are still being treated as town cops though, so scum will have to discover themselves to win as well.

Quote:
Each day players will be given results as town cop, scum included. Then they'll vote to eliminate who they think is scum.


That reads to me like scum starts the game thinking they are town.


This assessment of the OP is correct and is not secret hidden information but a fundamental essential to understanding how the game will flow.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:25 am 
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Trying to wrap my head around this, I have only reached to following conclusions thus far:

There must be two scum. HW and Dusky both have varied results, but with different targets. Likewise, neither targeted the other. There is no solo scum scenario which allows for that.

the only way KoD could ever be scum is if he and Rag were the scum team, and Dusky and HW were both IT. That seems unlikely.

I don't think there is anyway I could be scum given Dusky and HW's contradictions.

If HW is scum, my guess that scum is unaware must be incorrect, because he would have to have been lying since at least D2. Reason being that honest answers would make him SS, and there is no one who would fit as IS to protect for him N1. That makes me think he is IT.

That brings us back to Dusky. The only way for her to be town together with HW is the aforementioned situation where she is also IT and Rag/KoD are to scum. Do which is more likely? Both Dusky and KoD have reported failed investigations, but in different ways. KoD announced his failure first, which was risky. Dusky's fail looks opportunistic by comparison. She knew that someone had already failed, so claiming it was safer. She then revealed a delayed result, not when she received it, but when she could use it to throw suspicion on others. She even admitted that she looked bad doing so, which is a classic scum tell (I have learned by doing the same thing).

Tl;Dr: the only possible scum teams at this point are Rag/KoD, Rag/Dusky, and Neo/HW. Of these, Rag/Dusky seems by far the most likely.

Vote: Dusky

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:59 am 
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Results Thus Far
Scum Rag/Scum KoD


Scum Rag/Scum Dusky


Scum Neo/Scum HW


@Argh:

I like that you are willing to look at Dusky being scum. Now then, if you assume a scum team of Rag/Dusky, then HW has to be town. In order for HW to be town, Rag must be town. So your idea that Rag is on the scum team is incorrect. I will grant that all of that stuff I typed out is done with the perspective that everything was truthful as presented.

That being said, I have no qualms seeing Dusky lynched as it fits a Neo/Dusky scum team as per what I've maintained in previous posts.

Unvote, Vote: Dusky


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:06 am 
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NeoSilk wrote:

That being said, I still am not sure if there would be one or two. It seems like the odds on having 2 scum, and neither having a kill, would be unlikely, but possible. But, if you add in a second unknown scum, it really adds alot of possibilities to the outcome.

For now, I'm pretty happy where my vote is.


@Neo:

If you take the results at face value, then there has to be two scum. There is no way around it. HW's different results on you and Rag indicate one scum there. Dusky's differing results on HW/you and me indicate another scum.

As for them having no kills, well it is what it is. You and Rag could only have kills if you were sane, but that would require a town result. Given all the scum results you two had, you'd end up being insane which would mean you found all town, and that changes things differently when viewed that way. As for HW, he would have killed you the first round much like I would have killed Rag the first round (if we were sane scum that is). And Dusky hasn't killed anyone so she can't be sane scum (plus the results would indicate two other people as scum anyway).


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:19 am 
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@KoD - not fully true - not knowing what role the scum has could be throwing off the results.

Quote:
Sane scum will kill their target. Insane scum will protect their target.


Protect could be "prevent kill" or, it could do some type of result change, or prevention of a night action. I don't want to ignore that possibility.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:32 am 
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Protect, as far as mafia goes, means to prevent dying. Its interaction with a sane scum is obvious. With a poison, I'm sure it just prevents the target from being poisoned; that, or the poisoned target would have to be protected on the night they would die.

That's the only use protect sees.

Prevention of a night action would be role block. JD made no mention of any sanity, for scum, role blocking.

Likewise he stated none of the abilities having a janitor-like effect that messes with the results. Or babyface ability for that matter. There's no reason to assume these. If these were the case, I'm sure it would have been made clear to us in order to have a better understanding of the game flow.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:33 am 
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JayDreven wrote:
Aaarrrgh wrote:
JayDreven wrote:
Players are still being treated as town cops though, so scum will have to discover themselves to win as well.

Quote:
Each day players will be given results as town cop, scum included. Then they'll vote to eliminate who they think is scum.


That reads to me like scum starts the game thinking they are town.


This assessment of the OP is correct and is not secret hidden information but a fundamental essential to understanding how the game will flow.

KoD, how come you completely ignored this, continuing with your team logic and painting my actions in a way that would make have to be aware of not just myself as mafia but also knowing my team member?

Based on my results, I cannot but vote for you.

Vote: KoD


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:42 am 
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Other than you, who said I ignored it? So what if scum don't know who scum is? They still have to go through the same process of figuring out who is who based on the results given. And guess what I've been doing?

The "team" logic, as you put it, is just a consequence of the given results.

Counter question: You maintain I'm scum. Fine. Short of being the only scum, who else would be scum then should the game not end with my death?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:03 am 
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Oh crap, I somehow mixed up HW's results. Replace every instance of Rag in m last post with Neo and vice versa.

I don't think it changes much other than making Neo a better target. I am still ok with Dusky, but Neo might be the better pick.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:13 am 
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Other than you, who said I ignored it? So what if scum don't know who scum is? They still have to go through the same process of figuring out who is who based on the results given. And guess what I've been doing?

The "team" logic, as you put it, is just a consequence of the given results.

Counter question: You maintain I'm scum. Fine. Short of being the only scum, who else would be scum then should the game not end with my death?

Well, you first said it would be weird to assume it, then didn't comment when it became clear most people did assume it and Jay confirmed it.

Actually, I never maintained you were scum! :| I am just vengeful.
Clearly, as I am sane town, so would go with either HW or Neo.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:15 pm 
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@Dusky:

And it was weird to assume as opposed to scum having to figure out their sanity. As I said earlier, so what if scum have to figure out they are scum? The process still becomes the same in the end (only with less lying as opposed to scum knowing they are scum off the bat).

The big take away from this exchange is your desire to push something on me that isn't connected to the results.

Case in point, refer to my question to you and your response. But before we get to that, a side note. I assume you're being sarcastic because being vengeful towards me (while I don't disapprove) does nothing to advance a town agenda. Plus coupled with your whole, "as per my results," you led yourself to voting me.

Now for your response to my question -- annnnnnd it doesn't make sense. You're voting me. Ideally this is because I must be scum to you. In order for me to be scum to you, then you have to be insane town. Directly this means both Neo and HW cannot be scum as per your own investigation/results on them.

I'll dispense with the idle chit chat. You're scum. You haven't put any effort into this. You're just reacting to what is occurring rather than trying to be in front of it and actively deceive people in some fashion. This is evident from how easily you stumble over the logic regarding the question I put forth to you.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:16 pm 
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@Argh:

You've come full circle to my side of the table. Welcome friend.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:30 pm 
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Vote:Dusky

Ty for claiming scum.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:31 pm 
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EBWOP.

VOTE:DUSKY.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:13 pm 
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@Dusky:

And it was weird to assume as opposed to scum having to figure out their sanity. As I said earlier, so what if scum have to figure out they are scum? The process still becomes the same in the end (only with less lying as opposed to scum knowing they are scum off the bat).

Not really, as that was quite clearly stated. Agree with the rest as a whole here, but given the possible combinations, it would be quite daring to 'play for' your assumed mafia ally instead of just for yourself.

@Dusky:
The big take away from this exchange is your desire to push something on me that isn't connected to the results.

Case in point, refer to my question to you and your response. But before we get to that, a side note. I assume you're being sarcastic because being vengeful towards me (while I don't disapprove) does nothing to advance a town agenda. Plus coupled with your whole, "as per my results," you led yourself to voting me.

Now for your response to my question -- annnnnnd it doesn't make sense. You're voting me. Ideally this is because I must be scum to you. In order for me to be scum to you, then you have to be insane town. Directly this means both Neo and HW cannot be scum as per your own investigation/results on them.

I'll dispense with the idle chit chat. You're scum. You haven't put any effort into this. You're just reacting to what is occurring rather than trying to be in front of it and actively deceive people in some fashion. This is evident from how easily you stumble over the logic regarding the question I put forth to you.


The logic is you put forth is clear to me - from your perspective. It was hardly something to stumble over. :roll: . "Based on what I know" wasn't referencing my results, but what I know I must do to serve my goal here. I am a holistic player. What you fail to consider is the name of this game. ;-)

Alas, the chit chat was my favorite part. But fair enough.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:09 pm 
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I don't follow. Your goal should be to win. If you're town and you truly believe you're sane, then you're voting the wrong person. If you're scum, well, you wouldn't openly follow a play that leads to your death. Or at least you shouldn't since you can't secure a victory for yourself without causing a mislynch.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:14 pm 
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JayDreven wrote:
Oh **** she just won the game with that darkwing referencing.


^_^

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:19 pm 
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Well fml.

:V


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:00 pm 
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There's still roughly two days left in day but if everybody comes to the consensus that they've said their piece and won't be changing their vote, I'll end day early.

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