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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:21 am 
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Vote form makes it official.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:50 am 
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Stats time! I'm just going to put numbers here, I can make a spreadsheet later if you need me to show my work.

For an outside observer there are

2 where I'm scum,
2 where KoD is scum,
4 where Dusky is scum,
4 where Neo is, and
4 where Lilan is.

So objectively, KoD is right in 75% of cases. From his or mine perspective, he's right ~86% of the time, and from the perspective of his trio of suspects he's right ~67% of the time. So not as clear cut as he says, but still pretty good odds.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:39 am 
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Normally, and I certainly did bother to type up something originally, I'd push for, at least, Arrgh and I to target the same targets; however, I'm just going to sit back and see what happens rather than actively post today.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:49 am 
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@Arrgh:

In what situation are you ever Krampus?


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:53 am 
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So this is my first time playing on of these seriously, so please correct me if I am wrong:

Announcing results late is advantageous for the Krampus, so he/she can try to find a possible result that won't give them away, right? (And yes, I am aware I announced last). Would it make sense if the three of us that are more likely to be scum based on N0 results would reveal results first next day?

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:02 am 
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Typically a lot of information is gained if there are a lot of results on one person. In this game we have two results on Arrgh and two on me which helps set up certain facts.

If targets are spread out, Krampus can just throw his result out an issue. If, however, a lot of results are on one person and Krampus throws a result out carelessly, it could lead to the game being accelerated.


As for your second question, establishing orders would certainly help so Krampus can't just wait till the end to reveal (thereby being able to figure out who is what and fit in their result accordingly).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding my first sentence, here is a good example that applies. As far as I can tell, I see no scenario where Arrgh is Krampus (despite him saying there are two).

The reason for this is that in order for him to be Krampus, either Dusky or I have to be sane/insane. However, regardless of which of us is insane, there is an issue with Neo and Lilan's results which require that at least one of them be insane. Therefore there is no situation where Arrgh can be Krampus.

In other words, Arrgh needs to show his work.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:10 am 
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Vote: No lynch

claiming later seems to be advantageous for krampus

i don't feel like doing the math yet and afaict it won't matter until tonight anyway but i believe KoD that arrgh is comf town


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:11 am 
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EBWOP:

Disregard that part about showing your work Arrgh. I caught it. I could be naive while Dusky is sane leaving Neo and Lilan to be insane/paranoid which creates the two. I keep glancing over naive.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:08 pm 
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So...here's my work. As usual, I go with 5 different variations, each one with one player as scum, and assuming the other 4 players are telling the truth.

If KoD is scum:
I'm sane, Argh is naive, and Dusky/Lilan are insane/paraniod. This is currently a valid option.

If I am scum:
KoD is sane, Argh it naive, and Dusky/Lilan are insane/paraniod. This is also still valid.

If Argh is scum:
KoD is naive, Dusky is sane. Lilan/Neo are insane/paraniod. This is also valid.

If Dusky is scum:
KoD/Argh are sane/naive and Lilan and myself are insane/paraniod. Still valid

If Lilan is scum:
KoD/Argh are sane naive and Dusky and myself are insane paraniod. Valid.

So, based on what we have now, anyone can still be scum.
And this completly bypasses the OP:
Quote:
This will be a five player variant. Given experienced players know a dethy strategy like a veteran tic tac toe player, Krampus has been given an ace up his sleeve like years past. Keep that in mind.


In the past, this is often a one shot ability to invert the results for everyone, but who knows this time. If it was the ability, for example, to invert one person's results per night, than then is much less of a logic puzzle.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:24 pm 
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Yeah, with Neo's clarification, I'd say we have done all the analysis we can at this point.

vote: no lynch

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:30 pm 
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But we do have to remember the first post, not knowing what trick numbers handed out this year (and, giving presents to Santa? Really?) we have to take everything with a grain of salt, and continue to actually play mafia, rather than just figure out the puzzle. If we knew what it was, we could account for it, but, I think it's pretty safe to say that it's going to be somthing that messes with one or multiple votes.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:52 pm 
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Yeah, but it will be a lot easier to try and figure out once we have more data. There is no point in lynching anyone, because we all generate more data alive than dead. The only info we could still get out of today is people motivations for their targets (which means nothing), or if people want to share who they plan to target next (which is usually counterproductive). I plan to play Mafia tomorrow.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:23 pm 
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No Lynch unanimously passes. It's now N1. You have 48 hours or until all roles are in, whichever comes first.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:53 pm 
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All targets are in so day breaks early.

You all find KoD, OG Kris Kringle dead upon the floor.

Commence the discussing.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:45 pm 
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I got a naughty result back on Argh. Once others post, I’ll update my spreadsheet and show my work.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:17 am 
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I got a naughty result on Lilan.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:16 am 
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I got a naughty result for KoD.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:20 pm 
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Just waiting on Lilan....
Although, unless there was something that changed a result, it has to be Argh.

Reasoning:
Assuming Argh is scum...
KoD = Insane or Paranoid (since Argh came up as town)
Neo = Has to be paranoid (Argh and KoD came back as scum, and KoD is clearly town)
Dusky = Also has to be paranoid (same reasons, Argh and KoD as scum)
Lilan = Insane or Paranoid

That's 4 players sharing the same two roles.
Of course, I expect that *something* was flipped, so hopefully the last result we are waiting on should help...

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:12 pm 
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Wait, what?

You say it had to be me, but then you go ahead and prove that it can't be me.

No, if there were no shenanigans it has to be Lilan. Do the math on that.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:56 pm 
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Yeah...it made sense in my mind at the time, but you’re right, you being scum can only happen if some of the results are wrong, which is what I expect has happened.

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