It is currently Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:33 pm

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 6237 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198 ... 312  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:18 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Nov 10, 2013
Posts: 11365
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
nah I think you've been fine, buddy


hey, not to sound depressing or anything and i'm too embarassed to ask my work team, but I assume all you guys are basically stuck in your homes as well. Only going out once a week for groceries, maybe some small walks, etc. Does anyone else live alone? Cuz I think I'm the only one on my team that lives alone. And, as you can probably guess, i'm a bit of an extrovert. So i can feel myself getting just a LITTLE stir crazy and we're only at the beginning of this. Cuz I know of some colleagues who typically travel all the time and are stuck at home with their wifes and kids for the first time ever and are losing their minds. But that seems like a better situation to be in than being alone for weeks or maybe months. It's not good. I have daily interactions typically with coworkers, starbucks barristas, lunch waitresses, and such. I have none of that now.

also the ergonomics of working on an IKEA dining room chair all day long on a little laptop.... i think my back, neck and shoulder are really going to be pissed. i'm already starting to learn to live with the aches.

anyway, my whole work team has alcohol in their homes that they've been consuming. I have ZERO alcohol in my house and I don't plan on getting any. For me, drinking is only a social thing. they're thinking of organizing a video cocktail party, but then I'd have to go out and get some, and i'm not sure how i feel about that, lol.


Last edited by Black Barney on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Oct 30, 2013
Posts: 13384
Location: Secret Lair
If I was doing fine I would be playing Doom Eternal instead of Animal Crossing.

_________________
"Let strength be granted so the world might be mended. So the world might be mended."

“As the light gains purchase, spirits are lifted and purpose is made clear.”


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
So this is what the article is all about.


Image
Fist death in the US was march 1, and its now at 1,143.

This is what happens with all different measures.

Image
Notice the red line, UK system would be collapsing in the first days of may.

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Last edited by Cucho Lambreta on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:24 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 29, 2015
Posts: 1039
Location: Bend, OR

what do you guys think explains the massive dispersion in mortality rate? I don't understand that at all. I get why the numbers of deaths and cases is different everywhere, but the mortality rate you'd think would be fairly consistent.


The issue is that in most cases, the virus has not run it's course yet.

79,082 cases. Only 3007 have recovered/died so far. 1143 recovered vs 1864 dead.

And the USA used to be the country of Results, now we are the country of Excuses.

_________________
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/wintervoidx
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZ4WOy ... BgwzjA-FsQ


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Oct 30, 2013
Posts: 13384
Location: Secret Lair
I have to go into work everyday Barney; so your first assumption is wrong. I cannot control my exposure bc the whole office building with several different companies os still open.

_________________
"Let strength be granted so the world might be mended. So the world might be mended."

“As the light gains purchase, spirits are lifted and purpose is made clear.”


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:29 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
Wintervoid wrote:

what do you guys think explains the massive dispersion in mortality rate? I don't understand that at all. I get why the numbers of deaths and cases is different everywhere, but the mortality rate you'd think would be fairly consistent.


The issue is that in most cases, the virus has not run it's course yet.

79,082 cases. Only 3007 have recovered/died so far. 1143 recovered vs 1864 dead.

And the USA used to be the country of Results, now we are the country of Excuses.

Its the other way around tho.

Total Cases: 79,082
of which 2112 in severe condition
Deaths: 1,143
Deaths/ Total Cases: (1%)
Recovered: 1,864
Recovered/ Total Cases: (2%)

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:32 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Nov 10, 2013
Posts: 11365
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
hey can we talk about the right tails of that graph a bit? Where it says JUL and AUG, are those the END of the month? Like it looks like it's well on its way to dying off in July and then in August it LOOKS like it's time to lift the measures, so I'm just wondering if those are the beginning or ends of the month? man... I really want to see my girl in July at the absolute latest for summer vacation. I don't want to miss that. We're supposed to spend 6 weeks together, with that last two in August going to Maine, so hopefully for that we'd be ok.

what a rough thing to get robbed of.



mjack, here i think they closed down non-essential businesses so for those that still have to go to work, i THINK no one is around barely.

Winter, yeah exactly that's what I'm VERY curious about when this thing is 100% done in the Fall. Let's assume the worst number of deaths and cases are CLEARLY in the US. So now... what does the US do? Cuz that's embarassing. Are they going to come up with meaningful solutions (as you guys have done in the past so many amazing times in the last few decades) and put money to work to improve outcomes in the future. or.... are you going to go the easy route and really focus on china and wet markets and immigration and borders? That's what worries me, cuz going that second way doesn't prevent the US from being number one again next pandemic (which i assume will be soon).

I really hope world health agencies will study 2009 compared to 2020 and try and see all the things that were done right last time that stopped the escalation of that pandemic.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Nov 10, 2013
Posts: 11365
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
also, i think i get the mortality jump now. That happens when the number of cases starts to far exceed the number of beds and ventilators and people die from fluid-filled lungs that can't get treated and the low amount of oxygen in the blood eventually nails them. That causes the number to spike cuz there's so many untreated cases. So mortality rates always start at 1% and then can go up if the curve isn't flattened fast.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:34 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
hey can we talk about the right tails of that graph a bit? Where it says JUL and AUG, are those the END of the month? Like it looks like it's well on its way to dying off in July and then in August it LOOKS like it's time to lift the measures, so I'm just wondering if those are the beginning or ends of the month? man... I really want to see my girl in July at the absolute latest for summer vacation. I don't want to miss that. We're supposed to spend 6 weeks together, with that last two in August going to Maine, so hopefully for that we'd be ok.

what a rough thing to get robbed of.



mjack, here i think they closed down non-essential businesses so for those that still have to go to work, i THINK no one is around barely.

Winter, yeah exactly that's what I'm VERY curious about when this thing is 100% done in the Fall. Let's assume the worst number of deaths and cases are CLEARLY in the US. So now... what does the US do? Cuz that's embarassing. Are they going to come up with meaningful solutions (as you guys have done in the past so many amazing times in the last few decades) and put money to work to improve outcomes in the future. or.... are you going to go the easy route and really focus on china and wet markets and immigration and borders? That's what worries me, cuz going that second way doesn't prevent the US from being number one again next pandemic (which i assume will be soon).

I really hope world health agencies will study 2009 compared to 2020 and try and see all the things that were done right last time that stopped the escalation of that pandemic.


Those should be end of the month the article was written the past weekend so it counted months from the 20th.

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Nov 10, 2013
Posts: 11365
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
ah so the 20 means the day not the year?


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:46 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
Now I dont know.

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:47 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Oct 30, 2013
Posts: 13384
Location: Secret Lair
That is all assuming herd immunity is achievable btw.

You may just wanna read the article for 30 min tbh.

_________________
"Let strength be granted so the world might be mended. So the world might be mended."

“As the light gains purchase, spirits are lifted and purpose is made clear.”


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:51 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
mjack33 wrote:
That is all assuming herd immunity is achievable btw.

You may just wanna read the article for 30 min tbh.

or at least look at the diagrams.
Image

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:52 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 29, 2015
Posts: 1039
Location: Bend, OR
Its the other way around tho.

Total Cases: 79,082
of which 2112 in severe condition
Deaths: 1,143
Deaths/ Total Cases: (1%)
Recovered: 1,864
Recovered/ Total Cases: (2%)


Ooops, I did that too quickly. We had been sitting around 66% fatality vs recovered and I just transposed them and didn't think twice. Also, those numbers are weighted towards deaths as recovery takes longer. But just an example of how the deaths vs infected is not a clear picture.

_________________
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/wintervoidx
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZ4WOy ... BgwzjA-FsQ


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:00 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 29, 2015
Posts: 1039
Location: Bend, OR
Winter, yeah exactly that's what I'm VERY curious about when this thing is 100% done in the Fall. Let's assume the worst number of deaths and cases are CLEARLY in the US. So now... what does the US do? Cuz that's embarassing. Are they going to come up with meaningful solutions (as you guys have done in the past so many amazing times in the last few decades) and put money to work to improve outcomes in the future. or.... are you going to go the easy route and really focus on china and wet markets and immigration and borders? That's what worries me, cuz going that second way doesn't prevent the US from being number one again next pandemic (which i assume will be soon).

I really hope world health agencies will study 2009 compared to 2020 and try and see all the things that were done right last time that stopped the escalation of that pandemic.


To be fair, 2009 was less contagious (R0 1.4- R0 1.6 vs R0 2.6) and lower mortality rate (.02% vs 2% est) so, although I do think H1N1 was handled well, it just was not as bad.

I think the US government blames everyone else and about 40% of the population agrees with it. I think at this point, Trump gets reelected still, and those trends will continue for at least 4 more years. I really hope I am wrong, but I have talked to many people that think Trump is doing a great job. The democrats playing politics with the relief bill certainly did not help Trump. They could have stood behind wanting transparency and been seen as the good guys instead of asking for non related things.

_________________
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/wintervoidx
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZ4WOy ... BgwzjA-FsQ


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:04 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Nov 10, 2013
Posts: 11365
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
H1n1 was only 0.02% mortality? I remember it was such a big deal, and I had to get a vaccine for it and it was tough to do. I wonder why all that fuss when it's just 0.02%? maybe the hospitalization problem again?

Trump talking about deploying soliders on Canada's border tho...that's just for show and for people to think he's taking actions against this thing. It doesn't actually do a single thing other than spend money. Do people fall for this type of stuff?

Cucho, what is the 'dance' part of that graph mean exactly? Seems to go on forever. There's no way I'm reading that article. It sounds big.


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:05 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Mar 18, 2016
Posts: 2896
Location: Anyway the wind blows
Identity: doesnt really matter
Preferred Pronoun Set: to me
hey, not to sound depressing or anything and i'm too embarassed to ask my work team, but I assume all you guys are basically stuck in your homes as well. Only going out once a week for groceries, maybe some small walks, etc. Does anyone else live alone? Cuz I think I'm the only one on my team that lives alone. And, as you can probably guess, i'm a bit of an extrovert. So i can feel myself getting just a LITTLE stir crazy and we're only at the beginning of this. Cuz I know of some colleagues who typically travel all the time and are stuck at home with their wifes and kids for the first time ever and are losing their minds. But that seems like a better situation to be in than being alone for weeks or maybe months. It's not good. I have daily interactions typically with coworkers, starbucks barristas, lunch waitresses, and such. I have none of that now.


I was still going into the office for a few hours a day to manage essential functions (mail and package pick up, equipment maintenance, etc) up until the office Coronavirus case was reported earlier this week. Then the office went into complete lockdown and I (everyone who had potential contact with that employee) were put on isolation orders. Prior to that, the company had everyone on WFH advisement but peeps were still permitted to go in if they needed to. I was doing like 75% / 25% split of working from home / in-office. I wasn’t worried about being there cause I’d be like 1 of a handful of people in close to 40K sq ft of office space, so it wasn’t much different in terms of social distancing to being at home. This week I’ve exclusively been working from home and not leaving the house at all.

I’m not saying I’d prefer to live alone (I would not), but working from home with 2 small children (who are stir crazy AF) is it’s own set of challenges. I’m on conference calls with kids hanging off my back or screaming bloody murder - or trying to focus on completing a deliverable amid the chaos. My son has refused to put on clothing and has been in his underwear all week - I’ve been keeping camera off on calls but my wife has to have hers on for students - her students got a good laugh at my son when he did an underwear dance in the background during one of her sessions. So far wife and I have been taking turns working while other wrangles kids - but its super hard when we both have a meeting scheduled at the same time.

_________________
Duels Decklists, updated 10/03/19


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:25 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Sep 29, 2015
Posts: 1039
Location: Bend, OR
China 81,285
USA 80,854
Italy 80,589

Almost there!!!!


USA!! USA!!!! USA!!!

_________________
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/wintervoidx
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZ4WOy ... BgwzjA-FsQ


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Oct 30, 2013
Posts: 13384
Location: Secret Lair
The article uses the hammer to refer to initial harsh measures and the dance to refer to less serious but continuous measures needed until vaccine found.

_________________
"Let strength be granted so the world might be mended. So the world might be mended."

“As the light gains purchase, spirits are lifted and purpose is made clear.”


Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm 
Offline
Member
User avatar

Joined: Apr 24, 2017
Posts: 2434
Location: Cucho Lambreta#13992
H1n1 was only 0.02% mortality? I remember it was such a big deal, and I had to get a vaccine for it and it was tough to do. I wonder why all that fuss when it's just 0.02%? maybe the hospitalization problem again?

Trump talking about deploying soliders on Canada's border tho...that's just for show and for people to think he's taking actions against this thing. It doesn't actually do a single thing other than spend money. Do people fall for this type of stuff?

Cucho, what is the 'dance' part of that graph mean exactly? Seems to go on forever. There's no way I'm reading that article. It sounds big.


The hammer puts R bellow 1, and the dance keeps it that way until vaccine.

Image
Image
Image

_________________
NGA HISTORIC LEAGUE
MANA CLINIC
:planeswalker:


Last edited by Cucho Lambreta on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Like this post
Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 6237 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198 ... 312  Next

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group