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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:06 pm 
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Spawn is better than Mire's Grasp - would definitely make the same pick. I'm also surprised at the fact that you have a second Tymaret but are not using it. That card has been very powerful in my experience. Why not?

Also the BW deck above went 7-0!

- I cut one Karametra's Blessing and eventually both of them. Not sure if this was correct. In its place I ran Pious Wayfarer, which was almost certainly correct. It's a good 1-drop, since it's relevant later in the game.
- I also cut Funeral Rites for Aspect of Lamprey (on the vague theory it adds to black devotion, is an enchantment for constellation, plus it's playable on its own). This one I have no idea if it's right or not, because I never actually cast or drew either spell the entire run.
- The deck had serious trouble winning on the ground. I just didn't have enough big creatures. A single 3/4 on the other side for example blanks all my creatures. On the other hand I did have some good flyers, especially the two Archons, and Sunmane Pegasus was solid as always.
- 4x Banishing Light waaay overperformed. I even blinked it once; it had targeted an Transcendent Envoy who'd received buffs from Heliod to kill the Heliod. Who knew this card was P1P1 quality?
- Soulreaper of Mogis also way overperformed. It was definitely wrong to consider cutting it. I had loads of irrelevant bodies to sacrifice to it, especially since the ground stalls a lot.
- Reverent Hoplite also overperformed in the same way. Granted I am not winning with the tokens since I have no payoffs, but the combo with Soulreaper is real, and the 1/1s stall the ground for my flyers (+ provide expendable chump blockers).
- Flicker was a solid performer. Cutting it is also definitely wrong, in my opinion. Blinking opponent's creatures can deal with auras; blinking mine can save them, plus I have several ETBs. Maybe 2 or more copies would be bad, but the first definitely should have made the cut.
- Storyteller underperformed badly. The Banishing Lights never actually died (which card kills enchantments anyway - Return to Nature is the only one I can think of offhand). As it is, it was just a 3/4 for 4, still reasonable but nowhere good (usually it was inferior to Glory Bearers).

In what has got to be the sweetest play of the run, with Flicker as the only card in my hand, opponent plays Enemy of Enlightenment. It's a 4/4. Sacrifice two tokens to Soulreaper, it's a 2/2. Draw for the turn, it's a 1/1. Sacrifice Hoplite, it dies. One other nerve-wracking play was when I jammed Archon on turn 4 on the play against a BW opponent with Flicker in my hand. I calculated that he couldn't play Final Death to kill my Archon since it's turn 4, it survives Mire's Grasp, and Dreadful Apathy is ineffective against it anyway. Of course opponent could still have uncommon or rare removal, but they didn't, and Archon ran them over.

Next run is starting with P1P1 Phoenix of Ash vs. Banishing Light. I imagine these two cards are the only considerations, with other options being Cruel Celebrant and Warbriar's Blessing. What's the pick?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:55 pm 
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If you don’t need Phoenix for collection, I’d go Banishing. White is stronger color than red this set. But Phoenix is a good evasive threat that needs to be exiled or it keeps coming back to attack overhead - so if it adds to collection it’s not a bad first pick

Cruel Celebrant is WAR... how is that in your Theros pack?

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:21 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
- 4x Banishing Light waaay overperformed. I even blinked it once; it had targeted an Transcendent Envoy who'd received buffs from Heliod to kill the Heliod. Who knew this card was P1P1 quality

Why the surprise? 3 mana catch-all exile removal that's used in standard ;)

Gratz on your run.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:17 pm 
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Banedon wrote:
Spawn is better than Mire's Grasp - would definitely make the same pick. I'm also surprised at the fact that you have a second Tymaret but are not using it. That card has been very powerful in my experience. Why not?

At one while building I think I was leaning slightly heavier red with a 9/7 split and didn’t want to run two BB costs. Not sure what I’d cut for the second one though, Lampads are great for closing out games and the Oracles often helped get extra points in.
If you don’t need Phoenix for collection, I’d go Banishing. White is stronger color than red this set. But Phoenix is a good evasive threat that needs to be exiled or it keeps coming back to attack overhead - so if it adds to collection it’s not a bad first pick

Cruel Celebrant is WAR... how is that in your Theros pack?

Probably meant Careless Celebrant? Think I’m on Phoenix though, Banishing is among the best of the spot removal but it’s still a one for one in the end. There’s not a lot that lines up well against Phoenix in the air and it’s a great recurring threat.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:06 am 
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About time to call it on the format methinks, final results:

Image

Pretty happy coming off a dismal Eldraine season. Rare/mythic counts shown only include those gained from events. Ended up at 186/212 rares (8 dual lands unfortunately missing), but a good portion of those should be made up with the last of the mastery track packs, rank rewards, and future mastery pass packs. Picked up another 12 mythics in reward packs for a total of 18 - still missing Elspeth, Polukranos, and Purphoros for "singleton completion" of the set, but those are easy crafts if I want 'em for Brawl or something.

Felt like a good set overall and the bots were, mercifully, at least competent compared to ELD. Originally felt like red was weakest but it performs exceptionally well with white or black. In the end, I feel like blue is the toughest (not necessarily the worst) color to get into; it's more dependent on a cohesive game plan with fewer top end tools available to end the game otherwise.

Final deck was not my best performing (finished 4-3), but it was plenty of fun at least. Finally got to try the Enigmatic Incarnation deck!

Image

Would've loved a Warbriar Blessing or three, but interaction was not to be. Eutropia the Twice-Favored was great but Incarnation was absolutely critical; turning ho hom enchantments into Eutropia, relevant creatures, or additional enchantment creatures to trigger Eutropia every turn was awesome. Don't think I won a single game where I couldn't find it. :V


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 am 
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Yeah, it was Careless Celebrant, but I don't think that card's comparable to the others.

Took Phoenix after asking some pro players on stream (they said it's not close too), and wound up with this deck. Now I have no idea how to build it. I was offered Aspect of Manticore a few times but didn't draft it in spite of heroic & Envoy synergies, really no idea if it's right, because I took Final Flare over it and I also have token synergies. What would you guys cut?

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:58 pm 
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I’d want to be aggressive and go wide for pumps (heroic or tactics team buffs).

1x Wayfinder
1x shadowspear
1x sentinels eyes
1x Hero
3x Envoy (wayfinder and favored triggers, evasion for commanding presence or shadowspear life gain, aura discounts)
1x Oracle
1x Punishment
1x Will
1x Tactics
1x Favored
1x Pilgrim
1x Hero
1x Phoenix
1x Apathy
1x Omen
1x Flare
1x Pegasus
1x Wrap in Flames (or Cyclops if you want more bodies - but Wrap can trigger heroic while removing blockers)
1x Presence
1x Unicorn
1x Hoplite
1x Chimera
8x plains
8x mountains (you’re heavier white and I’d want to 9/7, but you also want to cast Phoenix T3 if possible)

16 land since you don’t go above 5cmc. 1 of your 5s should cost less than 5, and one of your 4s can too. Don’t need 17. I’d want more 2 drop creatures but I like leonin better on defense since it dies to any blocker except turtle - and I don’t think this deck can win playing defense

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:27 am 
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DCG-MTG wrote:
Image

That Sealed record is incredible. Not only the 62% win-rate but also how you must've overcome the breakpoints (like +600 gems from 2 to 3 wins) in those events. With 62% your expected gem return is 1,395 (as per Ryan Spain's sheets) but you got 1,571 :)

Do you think Sealed as a format is soft or did you feel lucky this time around?

With those numbers, you've come out way ahead in EV. Spent 3k gems on 21 boosters (those are 4,2k gems alone) + 42 Rares from boosters, which have cost nothing technically. Very nice.

Now for Draft you've opted to pay with gold which I don't like, but I suppose you like to play it, so that's fine. Here you've spent the equivalent of 20k gems, got a return of 8,8k pure gems and another 24 boosters which are 4,8k. After those you've spent 6,4k gems on (118-42) 76 new Rares (incl mythics), which is 84.21 gems per. That isn't too bad actually, but of course made possible by the great win-rate.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:44 pm 
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You're cutting Pilgrim? That sounds very drastic to me. 3x Envoy also seems drastic, since they have diminishing returns, and as an aggressive deck a 1-power 2-drop should be below par. You're also running Wrap in Flames? I have no idea how good that card is, never seen it played against me, but rarely see RW decks either (and now that I look at the card pool, I don't have the RW power cards). I really don't know though, haven't played the run.

Somewhere along the draft I remember picking Favored of Iroas over 2nd Commanding Presence, I wonder if that was the right choice.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:01 am 
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Sol77_bla wrote:
Do you think Sealed as a format is soft or did you feel lucky this time around?

Sealed is generally a bit soft right around release as it's always the first limited queue available and people of all skill levels play it as an Arena "prerelease". Feels like it boils down to a more experienced player pool after a couple days though. Did get a bit lucky in that my "down runs" were four 3-3s this time around, along with a 7-1 and two 6-3s.
Sol77_bla wrote:
Now for Draft you've opted to pay with gold which I don't like, but I suppose you like to play it, so that's fine.

How do you mean? Not sure what else I'd spend gold on to be honest, packs are super inefficient for collection building comparatively. Need to rebuild my gem stockpile after Sealed each set anywho :)


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:47 am 
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Banedon wrote:
You're cutting Pilgrim? That sounds very drastic to me. 3x Envoy also seems drastic, since they have diminishing returns, and as an aggressive deck a 1-power 2-drop should be below par. You're also running Wrap in Flames? I have no idea how good that card is, never seen it played against me, but rarely see RW decks either (and now that I look at the card pool, I don't have the RW power cards). I really don't know though, haven't played the run.

Somewhere along the draft I remember picking Favored of Iroas over 2nd Commanding Presence, I wonder if that was the right choice.


Idk your pool is lacking power so I figure best shot at winning is going wide and winning off pump attack after chipping damage early. Leonins can trade for stuff but dont punch thru - with pools power level I don’t see trading resources early as advantageous for you. At least the envoys trigger constellation for wayfinder/favored/unicorn and can give you an aggressive start. On heroic attacks their damage will be evasive. 3 is not ideal but with your other options I think it’s right.

Only running 1 pilgrim could certainly be wrong, and I’d def revisit build after seeing it perform in match 1. My thinking is it’s a 1/2 body and your creatures are generally weak. At 3, favored offers more as an attacker and omen helps go wide and offers some instant speed trickery. Phoenix and removal easy includes - and hero I think necessary. Your best possible start would be wayfinder > envoy > presence, so maybe 2nd pilgrim increase odds of getting presence out is better than omens offer of going wide and instant speed constellation triggers.

Wrap is actually pretty decent in aggressive decks and really shines in heroic builds when you put one of the pings on your heroic creature and use the other 2 to remove blockers. If you had a couple more heroic creatures I’d be no doubt include. Still think it’s include since you gonna need to push damage to win.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:54 am 
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DCG-MTG wrote:
Sol77_bla wrote:
Now for Draft you've opted to pay with gold which I don't like, but I suppose you like to play it, so that's fine.

How do you mean? Not sure what else I'd spend gold on to be honest, packs are super inefficient for collection building comparatively. Need to rebuild my gem stockpile after Sealed each set anywho :)

Sorry for the late reply but this is a controversial topic and I want to have my numbers right.

First, have you seen my post here?

I have taken Frank Karsten's analasys and later included the tables from Ryan Spain to - finally - prove my gut feeling that Bo1 draft paid with gold can't be right with an average win-rate. Right in a purely economical sense as in Return on Investment and yes, the alternative is buying straight boosters at 1k a piece.

What I did was define a new metric for what actually mattered to me: how much do I spend on a limited booster? Frank Karsten did that the other way around by defining a value for such a booster first and uses that value as the centerpiece for all the graphs. I don't even disagree with the way he put a value on it, but his approach didn't answer my question.

My findings were that at a win-rate of 50% I pay 45.67 gems for a draft booster when I pay that with 750 gems, 129 gems per booster when I pay the golden price and 66.33 gems per sealed booster.

Now up to this point this is old news. Maybe you've read that already, maybe you haven't.

Your post made me think of refining the approach by not looking at limited boosters but at collected rares. After all that's the actual goal: getting all the rares for then you get to play with every deck there is (unless they're super-heavy on mythics).

This is a bit harder to do for there is no guarantee how many rares you get in a draft. Sealed is easy: You get 6, ergo you pay 66.33 gems per rare as that's the number of boosters you get.

Your number varies for your win-rate wasn't 50% but an incredible 62%. At that rate you've paid effectively nothing because the actual boosters you got (21) were already worth more (4,200 gems) than your investment of 3,000 gems.

Now for draft, you've opened 60 boosters over 20 events for which you've spent 6,400 gems (see above). So one booster has cost you 106.67 gems (again, better than my 129 price tag due to the better win-rate). The difference to 200 (93.33) is what you'd pay for the wildcard portion of an actual booster.

And this completes the circle. I won't rewrite this post now, but with the last phrase I just wrote I got to the conclusion that looking at the cost of a booster is a better metric than looking at the cost of a rare for I can more easily compare that to the cost of a shop booster.

Your task is to gauge whether you rather buy limited boosters at 107 gems (equivalent in gold) per and get no wildcards or spend your gold on boosters with wildcard progress. You won't lack rares but I've gotten the impression that you'd like to have more mythic wcs. You get one per 30 boosters guaranteed and random pulls every now and then.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:07 pm 
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Price per limited booster seems a little backwards as it doesn't account for rares passed by the bots. EV calculation seems more straightforward. I'm not sure if there's a better source for average number of rares seen per draft so I'll use mine (76 rares over 20 drafts) for a rate of 3.75 taken per draft. I'll use Frank's numbers for a 50% win rate and value rares at 200 gems.

Packs: 5000 gold = 5 packs = 5 rares = 1000 gems EV
Bo1 gold draft: 5000 gold = 3.75 rares (750 gems EV) + 347 avg gem return + 1.33 avg reward packs (266 gem EV) = 1363 gems EV

This of course doesn't account for the wildcard track yet. As you noted, it's up to the individual to determine how valuable those wildcards are personally; given that I aim for (near) rare completion of each set and duplicate protection largely ensures I get the all the important rares from the set anyway, I value them only as much as a normal rare. At that rate, each tick of track progress to me is worth 33.3 gems. Updating the numbers:

Packs: 5000 gold = 5 packs = 5 rares (1000 gems EV) + 5 ticks (166.5 gems EV) = 1166.5 gems EV
Bo1 gold draft: 5000 gold = 3.75 rares (750 gems EV) + 347 avg gem return + 1.33 avg reward packs (266 gem EV) + 1.33 ticks (44.3 gems EV) = 1407.3 gems EV



Another thing you also have to consider is that limited lets you reinvest your winnings and play more events (including those you'd otherwise be unable to play without buying gems) while packs are just a straight transaction. Here's a normal trajectory for my limited play, assuming I earn/spend 90k gold a set, have a 50% win rate (again using Frank's numbers), and start with 6240 gems (18 rank drafts * 347 avg) saved from the previous set drafts:

Sealed: Each earns an avg of 1002 gems, allowing 5 sealed runs before finishing with ~1000 gems. 30 rares + 15 reward packs.

Draft: 90k gold on 18 drafts comes to ~67 (18 * 3.75) drafted rares and ~24 (18 * 1.33) reward packs. 6240 gems (18 * 347 avg) are saved for following set release.

Sitting on 97 rares after that. 39 reward packs plus an avg mastery track of 39 packs plus assumed earn of ~12 packs total from rank rewards is 90 8-card packs; good for about 15 rare WC (12 from track, 3 in-pack) and 6 mythic WC (3 from track, 3 in-pack). That means 84 in-pack rares for a total of 181 rares, 15 rare WC, and 6 mythic WC.

If I spent that 90k gold on packs instead (those 6240 gems wouldn't exist in this scenario, but keeping mastery and rank packs the same) I'm looking at: 90 packs + 39 mastery track packs + 12 rank packs = 141 8-card packs. That's good for almost five trips 'round the WC track (19 rare WC and 5 mythic WC), along with about 6 rare and 6 mythic in-pack WC for about 25 rare WC and 11 mythic WC total. You're looking at 129 in-pack rares as well.

Boiling it down, it's 181 rares, 15 rare WC and 6 mythic WC for limited vs 129 rares, 25 rare WC, and 11 mythic WC for packs. That's +52 rares for limited and +10 rare WC/5 mythic WC for packs, for an overall total of 37 extra rares with limited. It again comes down to how much you value those extra rares against the flexibility of the extra WC. The extra rare WCs aren't noteworthy IMO, as limited gets you near enough to rare completion that those 15 rare WC will suffice to pick up everything else worthwhile. The extra 5 mythic WCs are somewhat enticing, but you're likely to pick up a few extra mythics in those 52 rares and the relevant mythics are known by the time you finish that run of limited anyway to make the most of those 6 mythic WC.

Of course, the numbers tilt further in one direction or the other depending on your limited winrate. MTGA is also a game in the end after all, and it's not worth torturing yourself over EV hair-splitting if you're not having fun. Limited has the downside of needing to sit on reward packs until you're done with your events to not get boned by lack of dup-protection in those events, so it's not the best option if you want to hop right into constructed. Any form of limited is my favorite way to play though, so I'm staying the course either way. :)


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:34 am 
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Used this build and went 7-1; however a lot of the below cannot be trusted simply because I never drew the cards.

1 x Sentinel's Eyes
1 x Shadowspear

2 x Leonin of the Lost Pride
2 x Transcendent Envoy
1 x Hero of the Pride
1 x Incendiary Oracle
1 x Heliod's Punishment
2 x Indomitable Will
1 x Phalanx Tactics

1 x Phoenix of Ash
2 x Heliod's Pilgrim
1 x Favored of Iroas
1 x Hero of the Games
1 x Dreadful Apathy
1 x Omen of the Sun

1 x Sunmane Pegasus
1 x Commanding Presence
1 x Flummoxed Cyclops

1 x Daybreak Chimeara
1 x Reverent Hoplite

8 x Plains
8 x Mountain


Most of my wins were simply good curve into aggroing opponent out. The synergies weren't relevant for much of them. Yes, Favored of Iroas worked great with Indomitable Will (even if opponent knows about it because I fetched it with Pilgrim), and yeah I won one game with Phalanx Tactics with several tokens out, but most of the games it was simply good curve into removal into aggroing opponent. Not much to see.

- Phoenix of Ash overperformed, to nobody's surprise. The firebreathing ability won me one game, it was a great attacker in others. Phoenix is the only reason the deck has 8 Mountains.
- Shadowspear also overperformed, to nobody's surprise. I won one game after my opponent neatly out-valued me - he had for example Final Flare to sacrifice Anax who I had cast Dreadful Apathy on, and played Omen of the Forge neatly around my Indomitable Will (which he knew off since I tutored for it with Pilgrim) giving me no chances to use it. I had buff cards in hand but no creatures to use it on. On the turn he played Blood Aspirant, I topdecked Leonin, played it, equipped Shadowspear, and even played Indomitable Will for no value, to get it out of range of Mire's Grasp and red omen. He couldn't remove it and after I further played Commanding Presence, 7/6 trample lifelinker attacking = win.
- Never drew/played these cards: Sentinel's Eyes (I had chances to tutor for it though), Hero of the Games.
- Favored of Iroas did not feel especially good. It wasn't bad, but it wasn't especially good either. Even if I cast Indomitable Will on it for example it's still only a 3/4 double striker that does to a 4/4 on the other side. Furthermore, the double strike is only for one turn, and it doesn't have trample against chump blockers.
- Loss was to an aggressive GW deck that aggroed me out. He had Bronzehide Lion so I played Apathy on it, then followed up with 3-mana 3/3 with Commanding Presence. I had no more removal for that and Heliod's Punishment only worked for so long. Maybe I should've mulliganed - I had a 3-lander with no creatures till turn 4.
- I don't know how good the other cards (Karametra's Blessing, Pious Wayfarer, Wrap in Flames) would have been. Wrap is most likely the weakest since I only have two heroic creatures, one of which I never drew. Blessing ... it could've been good but holding up mana to stop my opponent's removal seems rather bad in an aggro deck, in hindsight. It's still a combat trick though, of course, but I barely played against any big creatures that I couldn't remove with real removal (lucky me at drawing them I guess).

Probably done with Theros now since ranked is ending.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:29 am 
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This is a long reply and I don't want to come off offensive in any way. This is just my way of talking numbers ;)

DCG-MTG wrote:
Price per limited booster seems a little backwards as it doesn't account for rares passed by the bots. EV calculation seems more straightforward. I'm not sure if there's a better source for average number of rares seen per draft so I'll use mine (76 rares over 20 drafts) for a rate of 3.75 taken per draft. I'll use Frank's numbers for a 50% win rate and value rares at 200 gems.

I think the price of a limited booster is the only value we can determine without subjective assumptions. Let's say this value is x. Both FK's and your calculations are based on defining x as a numerical value first. All the results are then based on this subjective value.

FK has rares at 412 gold (=82.40 gems) which I could get behind, you say 200 gems which I can't - see next.

Quote:
Packs: 5000 gold = 5 packs = 5 rares = 1000 gems EV
Bo1 gold draft: 5000 gold = 3.75 rares (750 gems EV) + 347 avg gem return + 1.33 avg reward packs (266 gem EV) = 1363 gems EV

This of course doesn't account for the wildcard track yet. As you noted, it's up to the individual to determine how valuable those wildcards are personally; given that I aim for (near) rare completion of each set and duplicate protection largely ensures I get the all the important rares from the set anyway, I value them only as much as a normal rare. At that rate, each tick of track progress to me is worth 33.3 gems. Updating the numbers:

Packs: 5000 gold = 5 packs = 5 rares (1000 gems EV) + 5 ticks (166.5 gems EV) = 1166.5 gems EV
Bo1 gold draft: 5000 gold = 3.75 rares (750 gems EV) + 347 avg gem return + 1.33 avg reward packs (266 gem EV) + 1.33 ticks (44.3 gems EV) = 1407.3 gems EV

The bolded part is the issue here. Let me try to reverse-engineer where you want to go with evaluations: For you, a rare wc is = 1 rare (FK has it at 6:1 and my calculations avoid this definition)
We can agree to treat everything below rare as zero for simplification purposes. So with your values, a booster contains 7/6 of a rare, ergo the actual rare is worth 171.43 gems and the 1/6 of a wc 28.57 gems.
As long as you stick to this personal evaluation of a wildcard, every event at 50% win-rate has a positive EV because the most expensive format (bo1 gold draft) costs you 129 gems. And you are right that a draft booster has the chance to contain more than 1 rare. So -with your numbers for #of rares- for 129 gems you get 1.25 rares, which are worth (1.25 x 171.43) 214.29 gems to you. So you win.

If we take FK's value of 82.40 gems, you get (1.25 x 82,40) 103 gems for an investment of 129 gems - ergo you lose. Now before someone else does it, this isn't entirely fair for FK did attribute some value to commons and uncommons and therefore got to this very low value. If we remove values for those cards and stick to his initial assessment of 1 wc = 6 rares, we'd get close to 50:50 in a booster, so the actual rare is at 500 (100 gems) and the wc progress has the same value.

With that number it's pretty close: 1,25 x 100 = 125, so you only lose 4 gems - it still is a negative EV.

You see, all these EV-based calcs are completely based on that personal evaluation of how much a rare is worth.

My approach removes that subjective step: I know that I want the 212 rares and I want them as cheap as possible. I don't need a random number how much those rares are worth, I just look at how much I pay for 1 rare in the various formats. And the answers are:

45,67 gems for 1.25 rares through gem draft -> 36.54 per rare
is better than
66,33 gems for 1.00 rares through sealed
is better than
buying a booster with FK's streamlined values: 100 gems for 1.00 rares (plus benefit of dupe protection)
is better than
129 gems for 1.25 rares through gold draft -> 103,20 gems per
is better than
buying a booster with your values: 171 gems for 1.00 rares

So what does this give? Bo1 gem draft is far and away the most efficient way to get rares being almost half the price of sealed which is next. If Bo1 gold draft is worth it, is quite subjective and requires that you put a very low value on wildcards. Ironically the target audience of gold draft are f2p players for which wildcards have much more value than they have to us who pay.

Quote:
Another thing you also have to consider is that limited lets you reinvest your winnings and play more events

I could but I think this is only relevant when you try to go infinite as a f2p. I don't worry about acquiring gems but only about spending them (and my gold) in the most efficient way.

Quote:
Sealed: Each earns an avg of 1002 gems, allowing 5 sealed runs before finishing with ~1000 gems. 30 rares + 15 reward packs.

Let me ignore that you start with a given amount of gems. This endeavour has cost 5x 998, so 4,990 gems. Subtracting the reward boosters at 3k gems, you've paid 1,990 gems for the 30 rares, which is 66.33 - see above, exactly what I claimed before ;)

So you do pay a premium in sealed (never forget that this depens on win-rate and we assume 50% here) for the benefit of early access.

Quote:
Draft: 90k gold on 18 drafts comes to ~67 (18 * 3.75) drafted rares and ~24 (18 * 1.33) reward packs. 6240 gems (18 * 347 avg) are saved for following set release.

Spent: 90k gold ~ 18k gems
return before rares: 6,240 gems and 24 boosters -> ~11k gems
rare acquisition: 67 rares for 7k gems -> 104 gems per rare -> again see above (difference of 1 gem due to rounding)

Quote:
Sitting on 97 rares after that. 39 reward packs plus an avg mastery track of 39 packs plus assumed earn of ~12 packs total from rank rewards is 90 8-card packs; good for about 15 rare WC (12 from track, 3 in-pack) and 6 mythic WC (3 from track, 3 in-pack). That means 84 in-pack rares for a total of 181 rares, 15 rare WC, and 6 mythic WC.

If I spent that 90k gold on packs instead (those 6240 gems wouldn't exist in this scenario, but keeping mastery and rank packs the same) I'm looking at: 90 packs + 39 mastery track packs + 12 rank packs = 141 8-card packs. That's good for almost five trips 'round the WC track (19 rare WC and 5 mythic WC), along with about 6 rare and 6 mythic in-pack WC for about 25 rare WC and 11 mythic WC total. You're looking at 129 in-pack rares as well.

We can significantly shorten this by removing all the parts that are equal in both scenarios.

Let's look at the 90 drafts again where you simply trade (the gold equivalent of) 11k gems into 24 boosters and gems at no cost/gain.

Then remain 7k gems that you spend on 67 rares. The alternative to that is buying 35 boosters. Of course you can't get 67 rares out of those, so as long as you value wcs so little, you'll stay correct drafting even with gold. However I value wildcards higher (mostly mythics) so with the same numbers we get different results on what we should do.

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Any form of limited is my favorite way to play though, so I'm staying the course either way. :)

Then you can safely ignore any EV calculations :)

I do like limited, too and therefore I felt bad during my f2p time for spending gold on drafts when the lame alternative of buying boosters had more value - remeber that as a fp2 wildcards have tremendous value.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:52 am 
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This
Sol77_bla wrote:
so the actual rare is at 500 (100 gems) and the wc progress has the same value

and this
Sol77_bla wrote:
I know that I want the 212 rares and I want them as cheap as possible.

are at odds with each other. If what you care about at the end of the day is set rare completion, then wildcards (rare at least) are worth no more than the rares themselves. In terms of gold spending, ranked draft is the cheapest way to collect those 212 rares. You do mention
Sol77_bla wrote:
I value wildcards higher (mostly mythics)

and it's a reasonable trade off if you want to go that route for the extra mythic WCs. I don't think it's worth giving up so many rares (some of which will likely be mythics anyway) when limited plus mastery/rank get you 6 mythic WC each set anyway though.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:30 am 
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DCG-MTG wrote:
This
Sol77_bla wrote:
so the actual rare is at 500 (100 gems) and the wc progress has the same value

and this
Sol77_bla wrote:
I know that I want the 212 rares and I want them as cheap as possible.

are at odds with each other. If what you care about at the end of the day is set rare completion, then wildcards (rare at least) are worth no more than the rares themselves. In terms of gold spending, ranked draft is the cheapest way to collect those 212 rares.

You are correct. For Standard purposes it makes no sense to collect rare wildcards when I'm getting them all anyway. Kinda hoping for the future there that my 100+ wildcards will come in handily when we get an eternal format that I care for.

Another scenario to save my argument there could be leaving out a set and just getting the playable rares with hoarded wildcards. Then I'm getting the equivalent of 212 rares by spending a fraction of that number in wildcards.

One of these two needs to happen for my personal evaluation of wildcards to make sense - but I'm optimistic that will work out some day.


Quote:
You do mention
Sol77_bla wrote:
I value wildcards higher (mostly mythics)

and it's a reasonable trade off if you want to go that route for the extra mythic WCs. I don't think it's worth giving up so many rares (some of which will likely be mythics anyway) when limited plus mastery/rank get you 6 mythic WC each set anyway though.

I don't know about that :D
I have 46 mythics from M20, 50 from ELD (counting 4x Oko) and 30 from THB. I don't know how many are crafted, but I'm sceptical if I can sustain that without buying boosters every set ;)


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:43 am 
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Very true, limited won't get you that many mythics unless you're crushing Traditional Draft and opening an obscene number of packs. :V

I typically wrap up a set with around 24 mythics and those ~6 mythic WC. Been enough to get everything meta relevant, be singleton-complete (for Brawl), and build up a nice WC stash for when Pioneer Masters hits. :)


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:50 am 
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:45 am 
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I’d go Apathy. Eutropia is good and I would snag her if I first picked a green or blue card, but you’re prob not playing her in the same deck as Drag. I wouldn’t give up a premium removal first pick for a second pick off colors gold card that isn’t Dream Trawler or Ashiok.

However, I think Eutropia is more fun and could totally see myself taking her as a speculative pick if my mood was right.

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